Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 34.113793 40.481513 47.501719 55.787139 65.268645 75.749595 88.180364
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 25.436175 34.009205 44.409402 57.828451 74.544130 94.531806 120.075316
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 19.865063 29.207566 41.422045 58.287869 80.658578 108.968584 147.104476
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 15.410961 24.673819 37.611957 56.554294 83.048183 118.188444 167.600072
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.738889 21.991806 35.683507 56.758543 87.578105 130.073005 191.950999
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 10.873022 20.109843 34.508854 57.680256 92.910486 143.138778 218.487089
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 8.367439 16.704640 30.464367 53.692414 90.496396 144.836440 228.902056
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 7.401349 15.713979 30.070418 55.231413 96.388902 158.800908 257.627101
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 6.260014 14.183479 28.532324 54.669486 98.831873 167.624212 279.112128
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 5.910971 14.091351 29.459424 58.291283 108.214925 187.562728 318.396750
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 4.739016 12.121663 26.706221 55.181258 106.128418 189.290779 329.562873
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 4.261052 11.519045 26.428340 56.440777 111.488012 203.160138 360.424896
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.872413 11.127981 26.682034 59.042728 119.992537 223.671944 404.734489
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.480368 10.662674 26.755479 61.386290 128.386632 244.812482 451.781237
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.995874 9.847621 25.954357 61.891138 133.424458 260.540511 490.743170
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.432817 8.667182 24.137397 60.069002 133.861942 268.226096 516.479504
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.088415 7.991729 23.351138 60.284213 138.183209 282.975425 555.036104
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.835024 7.511197 22.944293 61.254282 144.037868 300.791870 599.802526
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.389452 6.268970 20.393845 57.056453 138.984922 298.127912 608.008040
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.249978 6.010856 20.360187 58.676767 146.127395 318.720040 659.101714
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.052092 5.470706 19.455196 58.085191 148.482488 330.259355 694.142746
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.016094 5.542775 20.299129 61.897286 160.696499 361.575379 767.240394
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.788202 4.743873 18.433620 58.623968 156.930393 361.202454 780.871197